Downloads
 
Professional positions

Since Aug 2017, Assistant Professor, University of Neuchâtel

Since Aug 2017, Associated Research Professor, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich

Nov 2014 to Aug 2017, Postdoctoral researcher, ETH Zurich

Aug 2015 to Jan 2017, Lecturer (part-time), University of Bern


Jan 2016 to Jun 2016, Visiting Scholar, UC Berkeley

Jan 2011 to Sep 2014, Senior economist (since 2009 member of senior staff), Swiss National Bank, Inflation Forecasting, Zurich

Apr 2006 to Dec 2010, Economist, Swiss National Bank, Economic Analysis, Zurich

 
Publications in refereed journals

Trend fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics, 2019 (Accepted at Economica)

  • We propose a multivariate unobserved-components stochastic volatility model to explain exchange rate dynamics. We find that changes in trend inflation is a relevant factor explaining the persistence of exchange rate fluctuations.

  • with Florian Huber

  • [update 2019, working paper]

Constrained interest rates and changing dynamics at the zero lower bound, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2019

  • We propose a VAR with endogenous regime-switching to measure the impact of risk premium shocks with binding and non-binding effective lower bound in Switzerland. The effective lower bound leads to more persistent declines in the price level and a more persistent appreciation.

  • with Gregor Bäurle, Sylvia Kaufmann and Rodney Strachan

  • [publicationworking paper]

Nominal stability over two centuriesSwiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 155(7), 1-23, 2019

  • I estimate nominal trends for Switzerland from 1800-2017 using an unobserved-components stochastic-volatility model. Today's monetary regime, flexible inflation targeting, is the most stable monetary regime.

  • [publication, update 2018, working paper, codes]

Measuring exchange rate, price, and output dynamics at the effective lower bound, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 80(6), 1243-1266, 2018

Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuationsInternational Journal of Forecasting, 33(4),  878-893, 2017

  • We use a mixed-frequency factor model to examine the forecasting performance of Swiss business tendency survey data. Business tendency surveys provide additional information for forecasting inflation, employment growth, and the output gap.

  • with Rolf Scheufele

  • [publicationupdate sep. 2016working paper]

Sticky prices or rational inattention — What can we learn from sectoral price data?European Economic Review, 64, 384-394, 2013

  • We use a factor model to document stylized facts for Swiss sectoral dynamics and confront these facts with two popular price-setting models. Overall, the findings tend to support multi-sector models with sticky prices rather than rational inattention.

  • with Sarah Lein

  • [publication]

Forecasting short-term inflation: The SNB's ARIMA modelSwiss National Bank Economic Study, No. 7, 2013

  • We evaluate the SNB's short-term forecasting model based on sectoral inflation rates and propose a state-space model to deal with changes in the survey frequency over time. The model performs well relative to various benchmarks, in particular, over short-term horizons.

  • with Marco Huwiler

  • [publication]

Asymmetries in price-setting behavior: New microeconometric evidence from SwitzerlandJournal of Money Credit and Banking, 44, 211-236, 2012

  • We propose an econometric framework to estimate reduced-form (S,s)-pricing rules from firm-level price data. Applying the estimator to Swiss data, we find that the prevalence of positive relative to negative price changes is largely due to a positive aggregate inflation trend.

  • with Bo E. Honoré and Sarah Lein

  • [publication, working paper]

  • in the news: [Jackson Hole speech T. Jordan]

Is there a Swiss price puzzle?Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 148(I), 57-75, 2012

  • We use a factor model and Swiss sectoral price data to examine whether there is a price puzzle, i.e. an increase in the price level after a restrictive monetary policy shock. Although there is no price puzzle on average, rents and durable goods prices tend to rise. This is consistent with the cost channel of monetary policy.

  • with Sarah Lein

  • [publication]

Price-setting behaviour in Switzerland: Evidence from CPI micro dataSwiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 145(III), 293-349, 2009

  • I document stylized facts of Swiss firm's price-setting behavior based on a novel micro price data set. Prices tend to be sticky, but price changes are sizable when they occur. Sticky prices, however, depend on the state of the economy, in particular, firms facing higher rates of inflation adjust their prices more frequently. 

  • [publication, working paper]

  • in the news: [Finanz&Wirtschaft]

 
Ongoing research and unpublished working papers

Monetary policy spillovers, 2019

with Teodoro Bevilacqua

Wage rigidity and employment, 2019

with Anne Kathrin Funk

Shocking interest rate floors, 2019 (submitted)

Export prices, markups, and currency choice after a large appreciation, 2019 (submitted)

Is deflation costly after all? The perils of erroneous historical classifications, 2016 (R&R at Journal of Applied Econometrics)

The timing of price changes and the role of heterogeneity, 2010

  • I use Swiss firm-level price data to estimate hazard functions controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. I find that the downward-sloping pattern observed in aggregate hazard functions largely stems from unobserved heterogeneity and temporary sales.

  • [working paper]

 
Other publications and interviews

Zukunftsmusik für die Nationalbank (with Fabio Canetg, in German, Finanz und Wirtschaft)

Le franc fort et le rôle de la politique monétaire (in French, CVCI Lausanne, Summary BCV)

Passt der geldpolitische Auftrag der SNB? (with Simon Schmid, in German, Republik)

 

Was kann Geldpolitik überhaupt ausrichten? (with Simon Schmid, in German, Republik)

Wie problematisch ist die Bilanz der SNB? (with Simon Schmid, in German, Republik)

Warum sind die Zinsen so tief? (with Simon Schmid, in German, Republik)

Entwerten Zentralbanken unser Geld? (with Simon Schmid, in German, Republik)

GDP forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group: Evaluation and improvement, Report for the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), mimeo.

Systèmes monétaires et l’initiative « Monnaie Pleine » (in French, presentation)

La guerre commerciale mondiale aura-t-elle lieu? (in French, RTN)

Die Kosten von Deflation: Eine historische Analyse (in German, KOF Spezialanalyse)

What drives exchange rate persistence? The role of trend inflation (KOF Bulletin)

Preisstabilität in der Schweiz seit dem 19. Jahrhundert (in German, NZZ onlineÖkonomenstimmeKOF Bulletin)

Grants and other professional activities

Grant for the project Heterogeneous Effects of Monetary Policy, Seed Money for project preparation by the University of Neuchâtel, 2018, with Juliette Cattin

Grant for the project Combination of Expert Forecasts by the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs, 2017

Grant for the project Structural change of the Swiss economy in a difficult monetary environment by the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs, 2017, with Tobias Renkin

Referee for Applied Economics Letters, Computational Economics, Empirical Economics, Focus on European Economic Integration, German Economic Review, Journal of Economic History, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (4×), Review of International Economics (3×), Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (3×)

 

President of advisory group on the 2020 revision of the producer and import price indices at the Swiss Federal Statistical Office

Organizer of the Swiss Macro Meeting 2019, a workshop fostering exchange between academia, policy institutions, and the private sector, with Sarah Lein and Samad Sarferaz.

Member of the dean's office, Faculty of Economics and Business, Université de Neuchâtel 2019-2021

Member of the Assemblée de l’Université de Neuchâtel 2018-2019

PhD supervisor: Teodoro Bevilacqua (University of Neuchâtel)
PhD committee: Cécile Hediger, Benjamin Tissot-Daguette, Sabina Kummer-Noormamode (all University of Neuchâtel)
Master thesis supervisor: Michael Schmocker, Mihai Marcu, and Yannick Schwarz (all University of Bern)

Session organizer and scientific program committee at 2016 and 2017 CFE-ERCIM